Jared Levy




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Posts Tagged ‘VXX’

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posted by admin, August 30, 2011 @ 4:45 am

Is Gold the New VIX?

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Written by Jared Levy, Editor, Option Strategies Weekly
Tuesday, 30 August 2011 09:58

gold_copyThose of you who know me know that I love statistics and that I’m always looking for ANYTHING that gives me an “edge” or “early warning signal.”

I use statistics to predicted major movements in the market. Some signals are bullish, like this one I wrote about in Smart Investing Daily on June 7th.

Just recently I found an abnormality in the way that options were being priced and traded. Back on July 22nd, the signals I saw were pointing to move sharply lower in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Sure enough, these indexes dropped 18% almost immediately.

I find these early warning signals in charts, trade volume, options, news stories, and in abnormal trading activity. I also find signals in correlations between securities. (This is one of my favorite signals.) But correlations can hard to spot.

Correlations in the Market

Believe it or not, just about every investor has come across a correlation in their analysis. For example, many investors look at something called beta. A stock’s beta tells us how volatile it is compared to the market. If a stock has a beta of 1 it should be moving at about the same rate as the index it belongs to.

For example, Google (GOOG:NASDAQ) has a beta of 1.13, which means that if the market is up 1%, Google is going to be up about 1.13% on average.

Stocks can have negative betas as well. The company China Green Agriculture Inc. (CGA:NYSE) has a beta of -5.52, which means if the market is up 1%, chances are this stock is going to be DOWN 5.52% on average.

Most stocks, commodities and metals have natural relationships with one another. When these correlations become “disconnected,” it can be a sign that something is wrong.

Major disconnections can be a Read more

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posted by admin, July 8, 2011 @ 2:04 am

The Biggest Scam on Wall Street?

Jared Levy, Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly
Friday, 08 July 2011
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S&P 500It’s the day the market fell apart. The day the usual became the impossible.

Imagine you purchase an exchange-traded fund or note and the next day it just suddenly stops trading. Would you be scared? Angry? Frustrated?

What if you had a profit and couldn’t collect one cent of it?

As frightening as that sounds, this exact scenario just occurred last Friday in a very heavily traded and popular exchange-traded note (ETN) called the iPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 VIX (VZZ:NYSE), which is a leveraged ETN based on the Volatility Index (VIX).

Shares of IPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 VIXare being removed from the market, not because of bankruptcy or delisting, but because of an obscure, widely unknown clause in the prospectus that forces the shares to be “redeemed” or cashed out when the index trades at a certain value.

In this case $10 was the redemption trigger price. So once iPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 VIX hit that level on Friday, all stockholders (actually note holders in this case) were forced to redeem their shares for $10. Even the ones who sold short at $9.68 were forced to take a loss.

Let me explain… Read more

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etfThese are strong words, I know. I wouldn’t choose them if I weren’t truly concerned, because apparently not many care about the thousands of investors who have been burnt using volatility index (VIX) options and the VXX, a VIX-based ETF product, to invest in volatility.

Before I get into why these investments are completely wrong for the average investor, I need to offer balance to that statement and hopefully prevent many of my former colleagues at the CBOE from removing me from their Facebook friend list (or worse).

There is a place and a function for the VIX, VXX and the options that trade on both. To some extent, they are related to volatility and can be reactive and utilized in some form or fashion. Unfortunately, the behavior of both products even leaves me frustrated (and I have been trading options for 15 years).

What the Bold Print Giveth, the Fine Print Taketh Away

Last week, Robert Whaley, who created the VIX back in 1993, was on CNBC discussing his new Alpha indexes (I will examine those at a later date). Earlier that day he talked about the VIX and said it was an accurate “fear” indicator.

I disagree!

He is obviously a bright, talented mathematician and educator, but probably sees the world a bit differently than the average investor. He also has an intimate relationship with the products that he creates, which may indicate a lack of objectivity.

Aside from the fact that mathematical models can’t mimic real life and that theory and application are two very different things, I am more concerned with the opinion he offered in the interview and the lack of caution to investors in these types of complex products.

He joked that he made 30% yesterday (in his new product) and implied that trading regular “vanilla” options are more Read more