Jared Levy




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Archives

Posts Tagged ‘VIX’

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posted by admin, August 30, 2011 @ 4:45 am

Is Gold the New VIX?

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Written by Jared Levy, Editor, Option Strategies Weekly
Tuesday, 30 August 2011 09:58

gold_copyThose of you who know me know that I love statistics and that I’m always looking for ANYTHING that gives me an “edge” or “early warning signal.”

I use statistics to predicted major movements in the market. Some signals are bullish, like this one I wrote about in Smart Investing Daily on June 7th.

Just recently I found an abnormality in the way that options were being priced and traded. Back on July 22nd, the signals I saw were pointing to move sharply lower in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Sure enough, these indexes dropped 18% almost immediately.

I find these early warning signals in charts, trade volume, options, news stories, and in abnormal trading activity. I also find signals in correlations between securities. (This is one of my favorite signals.) But correlations can hard to spot.

Correlations in the Market

Believe it or not, just about every investor has come across a correlation in their analysis. For example, many investors look at something called beta. A stock’s beta tells us how volatile it is compared to the market. If a stock has a beta of 1 it should be moving at about the same rate as the index it belongs to.

For example, Google (GOOG:NASDAQ) has a beta of 1.13, which means that if the market is up 1%, Google is going to be up about 1.13% on average.

Stocks can have negative betas as well. The company China Green Agriculture Inc. (CGA:NYSE) has a beta of -5.52, which means if the market is up 1%, chances are this stock is going to be DOWN 5.52% on average.

Most stocks, commodities and metals have natural relationships with one another. When these correlations become “disconnected,” it can be a sign that something is wrong.

Major disconnections can be a Read more

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posted by admin, July 8, 2011 @ 2:04 am

The Biggest Scam on Wall Street?

Jared Levy, Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly
Friday, 08 July 2011
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S&P 500It’s the day the market fell apart. The day the usual became the impossible.

Imagine you purchase an exchange-traded fund or note and the next day it just suddenly stops trading. Would you be scared? Angry? Frustrated?

What if you had a profit and couldn’t collect one cent of it?

As frightening as that sounds, this exact scenario just occurred last Friday in a very heavily traded and popular exchange-traded note (ETN) called the iPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 VIX (VZZ:NYSE), which is a leveraged ETN based on the Volatility Index (VIX).

Shares of IPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 VIXare being removed from the market, not because of bankruptcy or delisting, but because of an obscure, widely unknown clause in the prospectus that forces the shares to be “redeemed” or cashed out when the index trades at a certain value.

In this case $10 was the redemption trigger price. So once iPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 VIX hit that level on Friday, all stockholders (actually note holders in this case) were forced to redeem their shares for $10. Even the ones who sold short at $9.68 were forced to take a loss.

Let me explain… Read more

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posted by admin, June 7, 2011 @ 4:19 am

Are SPX Options Signaling a Market Rally?

Written by Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily
Tuesday, 07 June 2011 11:18
jared_levy150x150-2Options give an experienced trader the ability to make money in any market — no matter which way it’s headed. But did you know they can also act as a warning signal or a buy signal? Options can tell you when the market is about to go haywire, and they can also tell you when the market (or a stock) is ready for a rally.

To understand how, we need to take a step back for a second and look at exactly what an option is and what its price represents.

An option is a contract that gives an investor the right to buy or sell a stock at a certain price (called a “strike price”) by a certain date. These investments give traders a lot of flexibility that stock investors don’t have. Most investors who buy stocks can only make money if share prices climb. Options investors can make money if the stock moves in either direction by investing in the right kind of option.

Traders buy “call” options when they think the underlying stock is going to rise in price. If you think Exxon Mobil’s (XOM:NYSE) share price is going to climb from $80 to $85, you might want to buy call options. Call options increase in value when a stock’s share price climbs.

Traders buy “put” options when they think the underlying stock is going to fall in price. If you think Exxon Mobil’s share price is going to fall from $80 to $75, you might want to buy put options. Put options increase in value when a stock’s share price falls.

This last bit is how options traders make money when the market is falling.

Now that we have a basic understanding of what options are, let’s talk about how options are priced.

The Five Components That Influence an Option’s Price

Stock Price — Obviously the price of the underlying asset (stock, index, ETF, etc.) will have an effect on the price of an option.

Time Till Expiration – All options have an expiration date. The longer an option has until its expiration, the more expensive it is. You’re basically paying for more time for the underlying stock to move. The amount of time until an option expires will have a direct effect on the price.

Dividends – Believe it or not, dividends also influence option value. Dividends lower the price of calls and raise the price of puts. (When you buy an option, all the dividend math is already figured in.)

Interest — Interest rates have a fairly minor effect on most options, but they do influence option prices. Higher interest rates will increase call values and lower put values.

Volatility — If there is a high demand for an option or if a stock is extremely erratic, “implied” volatility will be higher and the option more expensive and vice versa. Here’s what that means:

  • The implied volatility is related to events and movements in the stock. It is always expressed in percentage terms.
  • If an option’s volatility is out of line or looks abnormal, it could spell trouble on the horizon.
  • It can also tell us things that the stock charts or news can’t…

When the Natural Order Is Disturbed

The fact is that most of the investment community and media know little or nothing about options. They say the Volatility Index (VIX) is telling us whether the market is overbought or oversold or if investors are scared or confident. The truth is that the VIX alone can’t even come close to predicting these things without considering other factors.

There is an innate balance and relationship between a stock and its options as well as the puts and calls themselves.

What I am about to show you is what we professionals use to spot impending danger or safe opportunities. When there is a severe disparity between different options volatility, professional traders can use it to their advantage.

One of the simplest uses is to gauge real market sentiment.

(Investing doesn’t have to be complicated. Sign up for Smart Investing Daily and let me and my fellow editor Sara Nunnally simplify the stock market for you with our easy-to-understand investment articles.)

Meet “SKEW”

Without turning this into a math lesson or boring you all to death, I’ll keep this simple and straight forward.

Look at the chart below. This is an options chain, or a list of all the different options you can buy on a specific stock or ETF. This options chain is for the S&P 500 Index.

You will see two options highlighted. One is a put (highlighted in red) and the other is a Read more

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etfThese are strong words, I know. I wouldn’t choose them if I weren’t truly concerned, because apparently not many care about the thousands of investors who have been burnt using volatility index (VIX) options and the VXX, a VIX-based ETF product, to invest in volatility.

Before I get into why these investments are completely wrong for the average investor, I need to offer balance to that statement and hopefully prevent many of my former colleagues at the CBOE from removing me from their Facebook friend list (or worse).

There is a place and a function for the VIX, VXX and the options that trade on both. To some extent, they are related to volatility and can be reactive and utilized in some form or fashion. Unfortunately, the behavior of both products even leaves me frustrated (and I have been trading options for 15 years).

What the Bold Print Giveth, the Fine Print Taketh Away

Last week, Robert Whaley, who created the VIX back in 1993, was on CNBC discussing his new Alpha indexes (I will examine those at a later date). Earlier that day he talked about the VIX and said it was an accurate “fear” indicator.

I disagree!

He is obviously a bright, talented mathematician and educator, but probably sees the world a bit differently than the average investor. He also has an intimate relationship with the products that he creates, which may indicate a lack of objectivity.

Aside from the fact that mathematical models can’t mimic real life and that theory and application are two very different things, I am more concerned with the opinion he offered in the interview and the lack of caution to investors in these types of complex products.

He joked that he made 30% yesterday (in his new product) and implied that trading regular “vanilla” options are more Read more

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posted by admin, August 12, 2010 @ 1:14 am

A Technical Look Moving into Next Week

by Jared A Levy

Telescope, looking forward The Federal Reserve partially confirmed Tuesday what we already knew (with respect to the state of our economy) and failed to change interest rates.  Ben Bernanke et. al. did, however, state their intentions to begin using the proceeds from maturing mortgage bonds acquired during the crisis to keep its holdings of domestic securities around $2 trillion.

While this certainly isn’t true easing of monetary policy, but rather prevention of tightening, the act seemed to be interpreted as not enough action on the FOMC’s part to bolster our ailing economy.   Are economists ever happy? :-)

Wednesday’s worse-than-expected trade balance number coupled with a slowdown in Chinese factory production sent the markets sharply lower, violating some key short-term technical levels, mainly in the S&P 500 Index.  What I also found interesting was a Wall Street Journal/NBC news poll revealing that almost two-thirds of Americans still believe the economy is on a downward slope and has not bottomed out yet. These new results are much higher than the 53% of Americans who felt that way in January. The poll also showed an extremely high distain for our friends in Washington.

As a shorter-term trader, I tend to capture a quick snapshot of the macro economic climate/sentiment at present and find what, if any, catalysts might change those assumptions in the next couple weeks.  At the same time, I examine the upcoming economic and corporate data announcements for the same reasons.  Finally, I use technical analysis to research specific securities and then apply the appropriate options strategy based on my findings.

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