Posts Tagged ‘jobs’
U.S. Government Caught Killing American Jobs
Jared Levy, Editor, Option Strategies Weekly
Friday, 09 September 2011
A Note from Editor Jared Levy: At a time when job creation is front and center, and on an evening when our president vowed to bring jobs back into our economy, I learned of disturbing news.An old friend of mine who used to trade with me on the floor of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange called me, outraged, after learning about the U.S. government’s destruction of an American legend.
I couldn’t steal his thunder, and asked him to write about it.
Destruction by Design
By BJ Dolfman
Jobs are the key to any productive society. The United States has gone from a manufacturing hub and land of pride and opportunity to a post-industrial wasteland in many parts of the country. We keep hearing that our government’s main agenda is job creation.
I’m not sure what statistics our government is following, but by my calculations we are losing jobs here, not adding them. What they don’t tell you is that they are great at job creation overseas.
My only thought is that the destruction of the middle class is almost by design. Every day I read news that almost brings me to tears.
The latest event is the raid of the Read more
The Truth Behind Jobs Report Numbers
Tuesday, 02 August 2011
If you are a long-time reader of Smart Investing Daily, you know my predictions on the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report are pretty accurate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report is released on the first Friday of every month, and sets the benchmark for employment here in the US.
It is the most important piece of monthly economic data, and this Friday we’ll get a good look at where we stand.
ADP, the largest payroll provider in the U.S., releases its report two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Investors watch this report for a “sneak peek” at what the jobs report will look like on Friday.
Last month, ADP’s employment report surprised a lot of analysts, including me: 157,000 new positions were created. This was tremendous job growth. The report sent the markets skyrocketing and tens of thousands of investors bought into the rally.
The S&P made a two-month high that day…
But the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs number was a rude awakening… the worst job growth in eight months. The ADP number was completely wrong! After the report, the S&P 500 lost 5% of its value.
How could ADP be so far off?
One of my mentors taught me a lesson about data models a long time ago. He said, “Bad data in, bad data out.” The biggest problem that investors face is bad data.
You’d be surprised at how much data is actually collected and how much is merely estimated.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ survey sample includes about 140,000 businesses and government agencies that cover 440,000 worksites. In all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics samples roughly 9.0 million Unemployment Insurance tax accounts.
This figure only equals one-third of all nonfarm payroll employees. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses those results to estimate total unemployment.
The figure is incomplete in lots of ways.
It only counts people who got paid through the 12th day of the month. If your pay period doesn’t include the 12th, you’re not counted!
Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics does NOT include proprietors, the un-incorporated self-employed, volunteer or family workers, farm workers, domestic workers, or members of the military. Non-civilian government workers are also excluded.
ADP
The ADP started reporting in 2001. After years of getting a bad rap, ADP Read more
Smart Investing Daily – Anticipate a Weaker-Than-Expected Jobs Report
Thursday, 05 May 2011
Recently the financial stock market has been slow to react to anything. Events and data that would normally get a big reaction from the markets have had minimal effect. Even the killing of the most wanted man on Earth did little to influence U.S. stocks.
That calm trend may be about to change…
What News Matters for the Financial Stock Market?
All news, economic data and corporate announcements such as earnings reports have some influence on the financial stock market. A successful investor forms opinions about the economy and the companies he or she invests in based on all kinds of news. But an investor also needs to be aware of what news the financial stock market uses.
Think of the market as a telescope looking ahead about four to 12 months. Because of this “forward view,” we use the market as a leading indicator of strength of the economy.
Even though the stock market looks forward, there are checkpoints to make sure it is not getting ahead of itself or that it has gone far enough! The checkpoints are news reports and economic data. If these are not meeting expectations, the markets can correct.
Different news matters at different times. But one major checkpoint may need to really step up the pace, if the financial stock market is going to continue higher.
(Investing doesn’t have to be complicated. Sign up for Smart Investing Daily and let me and my fellow editor Sara Nunnally simplify the stock market for you with our easy-to-understand investment articles.)
The Employment Situation
The unemployment rate, though important, is considered a lagging indicator of economic health. This means that the economy could be improving and the unemployment rate might be slow to respond.
Remember earlier I mentioned that the financial stock market is like a telescope? Well, you can also think of it as a rubber band. When the market moves higher and economic conditions improve, the tension on the band decreases. But when the market has been Read more
Is a “Jobs Bill” Enough to Boost the Economy?
By Jared A Levy
In listening to the President speak yesterday – after he got the audio fixed- I couldn’t help but wonder if:
1. A jobs bill will really have a significant impact
2. Small business owners are even really aware of this bill and are indeed waiting to hire based on its passing? In other words, will “holding the bill hostage” deter these business owners from extending job offers?
Here is the transcript.
The businesses of investing and trading both have their complicated moments, as does the analysis of economic trends. But I do believe there are some major problems that actually have a more simple solution. Sometimes (in this business especially) many of us tend to think that a solution, method, or path to success must involve layers of complex analysis and in turn very complex solutions. I like to try and reduce things down to the simplest terms any time I can and relate a seemingly large situation or problem to something I can wrap my head around.