Jared Levy

Posts Tagged ‘aapl’

posted by admin, July 26, 2011 @ 3:43 am

Government Debt Solution Will Kill the Economy

Jared Levy, Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly
Tuesday, 26 July 2011

debt problems The government’s poor money management is coming home to roost at the worst time. The “solution” to the U.S. debt problem will be some level of austerity and/or tax increases, both of which are sure to grind the economic recovery to a halt.

A double-dip recession is not just possible… it’s likely.

How bad could it get?

The unemployment rate could surge to 20% and mortgage lending standards may get 400% more difficult — and that’s just the beginning.

If mortgage rates rise (which they will soon) it will become even harder to get a home loan. The minimum down payment for “qualified” mortgages could increase to 20%, removing a large amount of prospective buyers from the marketplace and drive home prices even lower.

U.S. Government “Underemployed”

Because the odds of not paying their bills are much higher, individuals with poor credit must pay higher interest rates if they want a loan. High credit card, loan and mortgage rates keeps these folks locked in a vicious circle.

The government is about to find itself in this same cycle.

Right now the U.S. has a AAA credit score, the equivalent of 850 on the FICO scale (which ranges from 300-850). With that score, the U.S. can borrow money (sell bonds) at the lowest of interest rates. If the U.S. were to lose its “risk free” status and/or default, its borrowing costs would rise substantially.

Worse yet, Washington is bringing in less income now. High unemployment and underemployment mean less tax revenue. Americans are making and spending less than they were just a couple years ago.

Like so many of its citizens, the U.S. government is underemployed. This is where the cycle begins…

The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency, which means our money is at the center of the world’s economy.

Take China for instance; it owns $1.15 trillion of our debt. Imagine Hu Jintao getting a notice of default from the U.S. Treasury Department… the reaction would not be good.

America’s next payment of $30 billion is due on Aug. 15 — and that’s just interest.

Here are our biggest debt holders.

Debt Holders

The federal government, like Greece, will have to Read more

Tags: aapl, AMT, debt ceiling, jared levy, SWKS

posted by admin, July 23, 2011 @ 4:46 am

Where Wall Street’s Smart Money Hides Out

Jared Levy, Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly
Friday, 22 July 2011

funds The masses and major media are making it seem that all is well in the markets. Over the past few weeks the Dow and S&P made strongly bullish moves and the Nasdaq reached 11-year highs.

Even with all this positivity, something is very concerning… and it’s not our government’s battle over our debt.

When I was trading on the floor of the exchange, I paid close attention to large orders trading in the option pits. These orders were coming from heavy hitters such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan or another large firm. If they were buying huge quantities of put options (which give them the right to sell a stock at a set price), I would trade along with them or find out why they were bearish.

When a big player like Goldman makes a move, it is for good reason.

The knowledge tucked inside these trades is invaluable, but is next to impossible to find. So I want to show you a little trick.

Volume Is the Cause, Price Is the Effect

Volume drives price. When there are more buyers than sellers in the marketplace, prices rise. When the sellers are in control, prices fall.

To find what the “smart money” is doing, some investors monitor large trading blocks of stock to see whether it was a buy or sell order. Unfortunately, the boys on Wall Street have tricks up their sleeves that make it hard for us to know what is really going on.

If a Wall Street player were to place a market or limit order (like most of us do through our brokers) to buy an extremely large quantity of shares, the price might go through the roof or vice versa when they want to sell.

That’s because the trade would be visible to everyone in the market.

The “Smart Money” (hedge funds, top traders, insiders) on Wall Street does EVERYTHING it can to hide its orders. Just like Texas Hold’em, the best bluff with a brain wins… and these guys play every second of every day.

Smart traders are always looking for ways to take advantage of less informed investors. The best hide their buy and sell orders so that they can get in and out unnoticed and without influencing the price of the stock too much.

Back in the ’80s and ’90s, markets were extremely inefficient. There were a slew of ways traders could game the system. Remember, computers and the Internet were still new and not widely used.

Trades happened much slower.

I recall being a trader in the Wild West days of the SOES bandits. These day traders would use Read more

Tags: aapl, GOOG, jared levy, NDX, ORCL, QCOM, SOES

posted by admin, July 12, 2011 @ 1:51 am

Sell Apple Before the July 19 Crash

Jared Levy, Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly
Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Apple iPhone The past few days have shown the first cracks in the market’s newly formed foundation. There are more to come.

Two weeks ago everyone got über-confident and started buying stocks like crazy.

The S&P 500 gained 7% in eight trading days… an amazing feat considering the current state of things. This brought the major averages back above their 50-day moving averages, a bullish sign for shorter-term investors.

The broad market has remained amazingly resilient in the face of poor economic data here in the U.S. as well as geo-political issues and economic catastrophes (like Greece) around the world.

Nonfarm payroll data came in at its worst level in almost two years. And consumer confidence here in the States has been moving steadily lower since February.

And yet, investors still have an appetite for risk. The pros call this the “risk on” trade. Investors are buying stocks ignoring the economic data.

When the risk is on, the stakes are high and companies must deliver results. Earnings season kicked off yesterday with Alcoa (AA:NYSE). If a company doesn’t deliver more than is expected or misses a forecast altogether, crashes (small and large) can occur, especially in skittish markets like the one we are in now. In stocks with elevated P/E ratios like Netflix (NFLX:NASDAQ) and LinkedIn (LNKD:NYSE), this is even more likely to happen.

But would you believe that Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ) could be on the chopping block, too?

Why I Am Scared of Apple

Let me first say that I am a huge fan of Apple. It set the bar for computers and electronics with the Lisa (pre-Macintosh) back in the ’80s. After falling out of favor in the ’90s, the company has reclaimed its role as demigod of the tech sector.

Even with this status, Apple could be dangerous, at least over the next week or two. The Apple iPhone is its top product and accounts for 54% of its share price (forward estimate). But the Apple iPhone is under Read more

Tags: aapl, GOOG, jared levy, NOK, smartphone

posted by admin, June 21, 2011 @ 1:54 pm

Is This the Ultimate Sell Signal?

Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily
Tuesday, 21 June 2011

stock crash Last week I discussed the chance of a major drop in the S&P 500. And for the past couple of months, Sara and I have accurately warned of sell-offs and market corrections. After all this selling you would think we would look at the bright side of the equities markets… unfortunately there is more bad news.

We may have just gotten the ultimate sell signal.

Those of you who have read or watched my commentary for some time know I am a fan of technical analysis and am an ardent statistical observer. In fact, I made a career out of numbers. It’s not because I believe in some secret mathematical code that controls the stock market, but rather I use numbers to find patterns in human behavior.

You don’t have to be a psychologist. With a smidgeon of knowledge, math reveals the truth behind human logic.

The 200-Day Moving Average

The world of technical and statistical analysis of stocks and options is massive and complex. There are many folks who study much more than I and have dozens of computer algorithms running in unison trying to figure out the market’s next move. It does not have to be that difficult.

Yesterday on CNBC, I must have heard the word “moving average” mentioned at least 20 times in a matter of two hours. Specifically, experts were referring to the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of several stocks, but one, Apple, was very popular.

Apple was the stock du jour and was on everyone’s radar because it fell below the 200-day moving average of about $316. Once this happened, the stock quickly dropped another $5, stabilized and closed right at $315.32 (the 200 EMA is $315.88, according to freestockcharts.com).

There are two major moving averages that traders use to determine if a stock or index is in a bullish or bearish trend. The Read more

Tags: aapl, dia, jared levy, sell signal, techincal

posted by admin, April 8, 2011 @ 2:57 am

Smart Investing Daily – Apple May Be in Trouble

Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily
Friday, 08 April 2011

smart phone I am a firm believer in the Peter Lynch style of investing. Peter Lynch’s mantra was to “invest in what you know.” So many of us tend to get caught up in complicated algorithms, strategies and analysis, when all we might have to do is simply open our eyes to what is happening right outside our front door.

Ahead of my trip to Baltimore and Philadelphia this week I was having a particularly frustrating time with my Apple iPhone. It was dropping calls and locking up frequently. My frustrations prompted me to take a look at some mobile alternatives and found some interesting results that I had to share. The AT&T/Apple iPhone dropped call saga is no secret and neither is the cult-like following of Apple’s (AAPL:NASDAQ) products that keep consumers hooked on their “magical” devices. But how long can Apple’s Kool-Aid effect last if there are simply better products on the mobile phone market at cheaper price points?

I have cited Apple’s strong presence in the smartphone market and have recommended getting long the stock for over two years now as smartphones have grown in prevalence. I still believe that Apple will have its share and continue to grow, but there may be some cracks forming in the tech monolith’s foundation. Let me explain.

The Apple iPhone

In 2004, before the Apple iPhone, there were a handful of smartphones with the BlackBerry, from Research in Motion (RIMM:NASDAQ), reigning supreme in all things cool and cutting edge. If you were a businessperson in the know and with the means, you had one, and you were addicted to it. It was the Apple iPhone of its time and back then I thought there could be nothing that would replace it. When the Apple iPhone was released, it really was a magical device and almost immediately made the “Crackberry” obsolete. Read more

Tags: aapl, rimm, S, smartphone

posted by admin, February 22, 2011 @ 6:46 am

Litmus Test for New ETFs — Should You Jump Into this Smart Phone Fund?

Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily
Tuesday, 22 February 2011

technology cellphone I was out to dinner at a swanky restaurant here in Dallas where you would think etiquette would prevent the use of electronic devices at the table. I was blown away when I looked around the room and saw that about 40% of the patrons were using their smart phones to exchange pictures, surf the web, check out the reviews of some of the wines on the menu, etc. These aren’t kids without manners; the smart phone is transcending generations as the bulk of the diners using the devices were over 50!

Smart phones at dinner

For years now, I have been preaching about the huge upside growth potential in the smart phone sector and have outlined several stocks such as Google (GOOG:NASDAQ), Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ), Research in Motion (RIMM:NASDAQ) and others to invest in. I still believe that the smart phone will become the proverbial “wallet” you carry around with you, keeping you in touch wherever you are and perhaps one day even replacing your identification and credit cards.

But is investing in a company like Apple, Google, Research Read more

Tags: aapl, GOOG, IBM, NOK, smartphone

posted by admin, January 18, 2011 @ 8:34 am

Smart Investing Daily – Steve Jobs Is Leaving Apple Again — Is It Time to Sell the Stock?

Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily
Tuesday, 18 January 2011

stock waves Six sentences… That’s all it was. The “explanation” of Steve Jobs‘ illness, as he takes leave of Apple, Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ) yet again, was only six sentences long.

That should leave more than a little concern in investors’ minds about the direction of Apple’s stock price. But Apple has never been just a “chart” and value stock. It’s been a Jobs stock, and he may be more important to the company’s overall performance than its latest earnings report.

Over the past seven years, Jobs has had to “leave” his position twice as CEO of the world’s most prized tech company to deal with health issues. Apple, which was founded by Jobs and his then partners Steve “Woz” Wozniak and Ronald Wayne, has been built on their pioneering spirit and ingenious designs and ideas.

The early days of Apple can be categorized as trend setting and industry changing in many regards. Apple can be attributed with the mass implementation and acceptance of the graphic user interface (GUI), which was one of the main catalysts, in my opinion, that brought computing to into the mainstream. Of course, the GUI had to Read more

Tags: aapl, apple, jared levy, steve jobs

posted by admin, November 5, 2010 @ 5:37 am

Smart Investing Daily – The Most Interesting Stock Market Chart of the Week

Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily
Friday, 05 November 2010

Computer I thought Friday would be the perfect time to bring you a bit of technical analysis insight. This week’s stock market chart just blew me away when I saw it and thought it would be a great candidate. Adobe systems, the Silicon Valley software creator, should not only be known as the creator of PDF’s and flash players, but maybe also for the enormous and frequent “gaps” in its stock price.

Adobe Versus Apple

Before we get to those gaps, there is one thing that we need to talk about and that is the ongoing feud between Adobe and Apple. You see, Steve Jobs doesn’t like flash and doesn’t want it in his devices. In a letter to investors (and the public) Jobs noted six reasons why Apple doesn’t run flash on any mobile devices and the iPad. I don’t know about you, but going head to head with Apple would not be on my wish list this Christmas.

Apple is obviously a dominator in mobile and personal computers and a force to be reckoned with. Flash is a very profitable product for Adobe and they will do what they can to make it work. It’s a battle that both want to win at just about any cost.

Enter Skyfire and their new browser, which bears the same name. Skyfire provides iPhone and other users a way to view videos and other content that is flash-based. So if you have been dying to watch or play anything flash on your iPhone, a solution is here. Skyfire is not related to either company and they actually halted sales due to the overwhelming demand.

Will this hurt or help Adobe?

Tags: aapl, ADBE, Adobe, apple, flash, jared levy, skyfire

posted by admin, October 26, 2010 @ 8:52 am

Smart Investing Daily – The Secrets to “Hedging” Like a Professional

Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily
Tuesday, 26 October 2010

funds Remember the old adage that it is much easier and cheaper to buy insurance when the weather is good as opposed to when a tornado is coming down your street?

Here’s a lesson I learned quickly in my early days as a trader:

Professionals almost always have a “hedge” or some form of protection just in case things go wrong. A hedge could be as simple as diversification or an option strategy like a covered call. Hedges can also be done with hard assets like real estate or numismatic coins.

“Hedge” funds are very actively managed and invest in all sorts of assets to try to provide exceptional returns for their investors and minimize volatility when things go south in the markets.

When I was a trader on the floor of the stock exchange, I almost NEVER took on a position without having a full or partial hedge to protect it.

But hedging isn’t just a tool for the pros. You could (and should!) be implementing this technique too, especially now. Here’s what you need to know…

An Easy Example

If I were long 1,000 shares of Apple and thought the market was looking a bit overbought, I might sell 300 shares of the SPY to lower my trading account’s overall “volatility.” In other words, if I am still bullish on Apple and don’t want to sell my Apple position, maybe for tax reasons, my short SPY position helps to buffer my account when the market sells off. I will still make money when it goes up.

Here is what a hedge looks like:

Long Apple Stock Alone:

Apple is down $1 — my account would be down $1,000 (1,000 shares)

Net result is a $1,000 loss on that day

Long Apple Stock With Short SPY Hedge:

Tags: aapl, hedge, jared levy, spx, SPY

posted by admin, September 15, 2010 @ 5:59 am

AAPL and PANL or, Looking Behind the Curtain (For Values)

by Jared Levy on September 15th, 2010

Looking behind the curtain for investing choices About a year ago – on September 18, 2009 – I wrote about a company called Universal Display (NASDAQ:PANL), which is at the center of the blossoming OLED technology sector and its derivatives. OLED stands for organic light emitting diode and is a relatively inexpensive, high-efficiency method of producing light and images.

PANL’s focus is more on the development of new technologies within the OLED space and patents as opposed to distributing the actual products to consumers themselves. I bring this up not to gloat about the tremendous year the stock has had, but to remind you about hidden gems that are usually just out of sight when it comes to investing.

After researching PANL last year, I simply thought their technology and patents allowed them a strong position in the fast-growing display and efficient lighting space. The shares are up roughly 80% over the past 52 weeks.

Most of the U.S. is gaga over smartphones these days (myself included). I therefore thought I’d focus on the iPhone and the new Samsung Galaxy Tab as examples for today’s article.

I was recently listening to my 80-year-old grandmother (who is not a technology geek like myself) wax poetic about her new iPad. She just cannot put it down and she says it’s changing the way she reads (she’s up to three books per week). This got me thinking about how great innovations throughout the generations have not only changed the way we lived, but made many people a ton of money over the course of history.

When Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) first went public in 1980, the IPO created more instant millionaires than any that had come before it – about 300 more, to be more exact. Remember, this was way before the iPod, iPhone, iPad (and even the iMac) were even a vision.

But investors don’t have to buy a stock ahead of their IPO to capitalize on a company’s success. What shrewd investors must do, however, is a bit more homework about a company’s product line.

After finding a product or technology you believe could either change the way we live or become an integral part of our daily lives, don’t just look at the company distributing the product to the masses and paying all those advertising dollars. Rip off the cover and look inside (and around it) for some potential hidden values.

The day the iPhone first came out, some of the initial videos were showing not just how cool it was to use, but what components were inside! Of course, the iPhone is an extreme example because everyone wanted to know who was manufacturing the guts of the device.

Everything Apple had touched in recent years seemed to be turning to gold. As such, if millions of iPhone units were flying off the shelves, the Broadcom..

READ FULL STORY

Tags: aapl, jared levy, PANL

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Posts Tagged ‘aapl’