Jared Levy




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Archive for April, 2011

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etfThese are strong words, I know. I wouldn’t choose them if I weren’t truly concerned, because apparently not many care about the thousands of investors who have been burnt using volatility index (VIX) options and the VXX, a VIX-based ETF product, to invest in volatility.

Before I get into why these investments are completely wrong for the average investor, I need to offer balance to that statement and hopefully prevent many of my former colleagues at the CBOE from removing me from their Facebook friend list (or worse).

There is a place and a function for the VIX, VXX and the options that trade on both. To some extent, they are related to volatility and can be reactive and utilized in some form or fashion. Unfortunately, the behavior of both products even leaves me frustrated (and I have been trading options for 15 years).

What the Bold Print Giveth, the Fine Print Taketh Away

Last week, Robert Whaley, who created the VIX back in 1993, was on CNBC discussing his new Alpha indexes (I will examine those at a later date). Earlier that day he talked about the VIX and said it was an accurate “fear” indicator.

I disagree!

He is obviously a bright, talented mathematician and educator, but probably sees the world a bit differently than the average investor. He also has an intimate relationship with the products that he creates, which may indicate a lack of objectivity.

Aside from the fact that mathematical models can’t mimic real life and that theory and application are two very different things, I am more concerned with the opinion he offered in the interview and the lack of caution to investors in these types of complex products.

He joked that he made 30% yesterday (in his new product) and implied that trading regular “vanilla” options are more Read more

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stock_indexOver the weekend, I had the pleasure of spending some time with a friend — we will call him “Greg.” Greg is a true “stock investor.” He has been investing for years and has done well for himself through diversification and other methods.

We were talking about his stock portfolio, and he was expressing some of his frustration with the amount of money he had at risk as well as the fact that his stock portfolio was not performing to his expectations.

It’s not that he owned the wrong stocks necessarily. He was just using the wrong vehicle and strategy to invest in them.

Uncertain Times

I think that about sums up the current global situation, geopolitically and economically, and in the stock and bond markets. Experts can’t agree at all on which way the stock market is going, nor do they seem to know what the fate of the U.S. housing market or economy for that matter will be. The market is choppy, trendless and volatile at times.

With all this confusion, do you think it is a good idea to invest a good portion of your stock portfolio in anything but cash (or maybe precious metals)? Probably not. But at the same time, you don’t want to park the bulk of your investments in cash, which is going to suffer the effects of low interest rates and inflation…

You must at least keep up with inflation to grow your nest egg or at least keep your current retirement stable, because the way things look right now, Social Security and Medicare will look quite different in 10 years.

Augment Your Risk

I was looking at some of Greg’s positions and noticed that he had 500 shares of McDonald’s (MCD:NYSE), currently trading at about $78. He had bought them at $72, so he was making a good profit of about $3,000. The problem was that almost $40,000 of his stock portfolio was tied up in that investment.

This obviously wasn’t his only position, but many of them had the same dollar amounts tied up and he had little cash to make other investments or in case of emergency.

What if I told you that you could use options to essentially control 500 shares of MCD, but at less than 10% of the cost and still have unlimited profit potential and limited risk? Would you Read more

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global trendsSmart Investing Daily has been banging the drum on global food inflation issues and shortages. The skyrocketing prices of foodstuffs driven by consumption and a weak U.S. dollar are wreaking havoc on the living expenses of the average consumer around the world; you can read our commentary here.

Energy prices, namely crude oil, are also at record levels, further exacerbating global cost-of-living expenses in both the goods and services that we buy — as well as food. Interesting enough, one of the “solutions” to our energy problem may in fact seriously endanger our most precious commodity of all, WATER.

Water, Water Everywhere, but Only a Small Amount to Drink…

I find it fascinating that we can trade just about anything these days. You can bet on the rise and fall of the prices of everything from corn to oil, electricity, soybeans, natural gas, timber and even pork bellies. Heck, if you wanted to you can even make investments in the weather and the amount of rainfall in a certain period of time. (Farmers may use these sorts of investment vehicles to protect their crop prices and yields.)

But you can’t trade water on an exchange…

The human body is composed of over 70% water. Water is even more essential than food for our basic survival. In fact, you can only live about three to five days without water; however, there is evidence to prove that a healthy adult can last 30 to 40 days without food!

Water is so necessary, but potable water is NOT a tradable commodity like oil nor is its scarcity the topic of many headlines. All life on Earth needs water to survive and grow; we don’t “need” oil.

Maybe we take it for granted because nature gives us a “free” supply in the form of rain, glacial runoff and underground aquifers that don’t require much to tap into. But what if that supply becomes tainted?

Water covers about 70% of the Earth’s surface, most of it being salt. Freshwater is available, but very limited in comparison, especially in certain areas… and not all of it is drinkable. Fresh water is found in a few places on Earth:

  • Ground sources such as groundwater, hyporheic zones and aquifers make up about 1.6% of the total water found on Earth.
  • Precipitation, which includes rain, hail, snow, fog, etc., equals about .001% of total water on Earth.
  • Surface water such as rivers, streams, glaciers is about 3%.

Less than 5% of our total water supply is fresh water. Now there are some new technologies that are changing that. We can also get clean fresh water through desalinization. A Jan. 17, 2008, article in The Wall Street Journal stated that “Worldwide, 13,080 desalination plants produce more than 12 billion gallons of water a day.”

While that may seem like there is a large amount of drinking water available, consider the facts: Read more

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Written by Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily   
Tuesday, 12 April 2011 09:51
OptionsHandbookIn my book, Your Options Handbook, I detail the ways investors can interpret not just earnings, but other economic and social data. Today, I thought I would share some earnings season insight.From Your Options Handbook:

[Finding] Stock Value After the IPO — Once a stock begins trading publicly on a major exchange, the issuing company is required to meet certain criteria, such as reporting their earnings and audited financials on a regular basis. If a company is listed on an exchange such as the NASDAQ or NYSE, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the exchanges themselves require the company to disclose detailed financial information on a quarterly basis (earnings reports) as well as to provide investors with an annual report (10-K report). This not only helps us to value a company, but this data should be used by you (the investor) to decide whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. This is why I encourage you to invest in stocks that are listed on major exchanges and be wary of foreign companies that may not be subject to our same accounting rules and regulations.

Because of the ever-changing demand for a company’s products or services, it is next to impossible to predict with 100% accuracy the amount of goods or services that will be sold to the public over a given period of time. This uncertainty, coupled with the fact that the stock market is also driven by the whims of its investors, makes it next to impossible to predict the future price of a company’s stock (if it were easy, none of us would need day jobs).

Earnings, at the end of the day, are usually the strongest and most accurate measurement of the stock market’s ‘”real” health. Just about every professional trader, investor and analyst will look at the track record of a company as well as its expectations for future profitability before they make a decision to buy, sell or hold.

Financial analysts and other market participants estimate how much a company will profit and perform each and every quarter. They will publish these estimates to clients and to the public (your broker may offer these reports to you). If a company exceeds those expectations, then often, but not always, the company’s stock will go higher. If the company fails to meet expectations, the stock may move lower or remain stagnant after the report as investors become concerned.

Unlocking Secrets of the Markets

Earnings reports are not just report cards for what has happened in the past, but also Read more

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posted by admin, April 8, 2011 @ 2:57 am

Smart Investing Daily – Apple May Be in Trouble

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smart phoneI am a firm believer in the Peter Lynch style of investing. Peter Lynch’s mantra was to “invest in what you know.” So many of us tend to get caught up in complicated algorithms, strategies and analysis, when all we might have to do is simply open our eyes to what is happening right outside our front door.

Ahead of my trip to Baltimore and Philadelphia this week I was having a particularly frustrating time with my Apple iPhone. It was dropping calls and locking up frequently. My frustrations prompted me to take a look at some mobile alternatives and found some interesting results that I had to share. The AT&T/Apple iPhone dropped call saga is no secret and neither is the cult-like following of Apple’s (AAPL:NASDAQ) products that keep consumers hooked on their “magical” devices. But how long can Apple’s Kool-Aid effect last if there are simply better products on the mobile phone market at cheaper price points?

I have cited Apple’s strong presence in the smartphone market and have recommended getting long the stock for over two years now as smartphones have grown in prevalence. I still believe that Apple will have its share and continue to grow, but there may be some cracks forming in the tech monolith’s foundation. Let me explain.

The Apple iPhone

In 2004, before the Apple iPhone, there were a handful of smartphones with the BlackBerry, from Research in Motion (RIMM:NASDAQ), reigning supreme in all things cool and cutting edge. If you were a businessperson in the know and with the means, you had one, and you were addicted to it. It was the Apple iPhone of its time and back then I thought there could be nothing that would replace it. When the Apple iPhone was released, it really was a magical device and almost immediately made the “Crackberry” obsolete. Read more

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employment rateHeadlines declare that the unemployment rate dropped again this past month. There were many experts who thought we would see a rise in unemployment. So perhaps the “seemingly” positive data was a main driver of the recent stock market rally in the face of not-so-strong economic data here in the States, the catastrophe in Japan and revolution in the Middle East.

It is true (I think?) that 216,000 jobs were added last month and that number does seem to be growing each month, but when I hear quotes of 8.8% as our national unemployment rate, I just cringe!

It pains me to see people get misled day in and day out. I know that in my own life I wish everyone I met would tell me the raw truth. But we all know that the truth is often polished, augmented, twisted or thrown away altogether.

Being cordial is one thing, but when masses of people are “taught” to believe a partial truth that has direct ramifications on their monetary and social well-being, a line must be drawn.

A “Peculiar” Figure

The percentage number we are told is the official unemployment rate is called the “U3″ measurement, which doesn’t calculate the full unemployment picture. It actually measures the amount of unemployed workers divided by the people in the participating labor force.

The devil is in the details in how they define “unemployed workers” and the participating labor force itself. I’ll show you how this can present a serious statistical conundrum in just a moment.

There are several measurements that the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) offers us, as noted in the chart below. As a total figure, U3 is the most limited in scope and is about Read more

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Written by Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily   
Friday, 01 April 2011 10:39
banksOne way of searching for investment opportunities is to look for businesses that are thriving with products and services that are in demand. But another method for finding investment opportunity is counterintuitive: Look for something that is broken or doesn’t make sense. Once you locate that problem or fault, either look for a company that may have a solution or perhaps look at the problem itself to see if it is viable or just noise.Financial regulation, or FINREG, is one of those “problems” that contains some noise. FINREG creates challenges for banks, brokerages, lenders and the consumer.

If you are not completely familiar with the complex 2,300-page bill, The Wall Street Journal assembled this interactive page that details the different facets.

How Can You Profit From the Confusion?

Sometimes an apparent roadblock (legislation in this case) may have holes that make it less restraining than first thought. Now, I’m not going to say that FINREG isn’t a highly restrictive, far-reaching, costly (in several respects) and poorly timed bill.

But some parts are just plain ridiculous and bad for the American consumer, and should be altered or removed. One of those pieces is the “Durbin Rule.”

Back on March 10, in a note to my subscribers of WaveStrength Options Weekly I detailed this flawed piece of the FINREG puzzle:

Some of you may have heard of the “Durbin Rule” — it’s imbedded in the Dodd-Frank financial regulation bill.

The rule essentially states that “interchange fees,” those fees that retails incur anytime you swipe a credit or debit card, are to be limited (fixed) to 12 cents per transaction (the average is 44 cents). It means retailers Read more